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Quant Investing Is the Engine, Not the Vehicle

  💡 The Core Idea Quantitative investing is a powerful engine — but it’s not the vehicle . If you want to build wealth that safely outpaces inflation , you need a robust, behaviourally sound vehicle — a strategy designed for human resilience, into which the quant engine can be integrated. ⚙️ The Quant Promise — and Its Reality Quant finance uses math to find patterns, capture “factors” (like value, momentum, and quality), and remove emotion. It’s disciplined, data-driven, and scalable. But when you zoom out to a lifetime of investing, pure quant breaks down — for three key reasons. 1️ ⃣ Model Risk — The Black Swan Problem Quant models learn from the past. They work… until the world changes. Think 2007’s “Quant Quake.” Think 2020’s COVID crash. Models that worked perfectly for years suddenly collapsed. 📉 They explain history — but can’t predict new history. 2️ ⃣ Alpha Decay — The Vanishing Edge Every quant “edge” attracts attenti...

Navigating Headwinds: The Complex Geopolitics of India's Ascent

If you’ve been following India’s trajectory on the global stage, it feels like we’re watching a grand, high-stakes drama unfold. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is pursuing a path of strategic autonomy with a clear ambition: to cement its place as a leading global power and lift its 1.4 billion people into prosperity. The numbers are impressive. The Indian economy is projected to grow around 7% in FY 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Initiatives like "Make in India" and a pragmatic push for energy security have been central to this strategy. However, this rise isn't happening in a vacuum. It's navigating a complex web of international relations where the interests of established powers, namely the United States and its allies, often create significant friction with India's own goals. From my analysis of trade data, diplomatic moves, and economic patterns, it seems India's ascent is being met with a mix of ov...

Why Peace in Ukraine may Remain Elusive

The recent Alaska talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin ended without progress. That outcome should not surprise anyone. Wars rarely end because a third-party mediator walks in and proposes a compromise. They end only when the main fighters themselves decide to negotiate. India has long taken this position. When Trump once offered to mediate between India and Pakistan after the brutal Pahalgam attack on unarmed Hindu pilgrims by Pakistan-backed terrorists, New Delhi was clear: outsiders can’t solve what doesn’t directly concern them. Our own epics offer timeless lessons here. Hanuman’s peace mission to Lanka and Krishna’s appeal before the Kurukshetra war were both noble attempts at mediation. Yet both were destined to “fail” because the real issues were never addressed by both parties uniformly. Where the cause of conflict remains untouched, mediation only delays the inevitable. The Illusion of Peace Mediation Modern history has often confused symbolic gestures with ...

Between Shiva and Krishna: Finding My Path in Family Life

  In my late twenties, I found myself standing at a crossroad that many face but few speak about openly: Should I marry, or should I remain alone? At that time, life felt wide open. I had begun to taste professional stability, had enough freedom to travel and explore, and I carried a certain restlessness—an urge to keep life unconstrained. Marriage, in contrast, seemed like a binding commitment. It meant stepping into responsibility, compromise, and the everyday demands of nurturing a family. Staying single, on the other hand, promised independence, the possibility of pursuing solitude, and even the faint pull of a life close to renunciation. I remember watching my friends and colleagues. Some were married, settling into routines that brought them both joy and struggle. Others were single, free to live as they pleased, but sometimes weighed down by loneliness or a lack of deeper grounding. In one such moment of confusion, I spoke to an elder mentor, who told me with disarming s...
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My Perspective on India’s Rice Export Prospects (31July 2025) Study and Assumptions In preparing this personal analysis, I reviewed publicly available trade statistics, news reports, and policy announcements through 31 July 2025. My aim was to understand how recent tariff actions by the United States affect India’s ability to export rice, particularly basmati, and to determine practical strategies that could mitigate any negative impact. The analysis draws heavily on Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) data for U.S. import shares, on reported tariff rates from U.S. government announcements, and on news accounts of currency movements and export taxes in competing countries. I assume that reported import values in the OEC represent the most current full‑year picture (June 2024 – May 2025) and that U.S. tariffs announced in April 2025 will remain in place at least through late 2025. I also assume typical export prices and currency exchange rates r...

Deconstructing the World Bank’s New Poverty and Inequality Numbers - Part 2

  Beyond the Metrics – The Policies, the People, and the Great Wealth Blind Spot In the first part of this analysis, I deconstructed the "what" and "how" of the World Bank's recent, transformative update on Indian poverty and inequality. We established that the dramatic fall in the Gini index was overwhelmingly driven by a methodological recalibration, creating a new, lower baseline from which to measure progress. Now, I want to move beyond the statistical machinery and explore the "why." What does this new, albeit partial, picture tell us about the real-world policies that have shaped the lives of over a billion people? And, more importantly, what does its great blind spot—the complete absence of wealth data—mean for our understanding of India's economic trajectory? To do this, I will examine the report's implications through the four critical lenses of economic well-being: 1) access to income, 2) the policies that shape it, 3) access to wea...

Deconstructing the World Bank’s New Poverty and Inequality Numbers - Part 1

  Part 1: The Recalibration of India: Deconstructing the World Bank’s New Poverty and Inequality Numbers When the World Bank releases a major update to its Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), it’s a significant event for global development watchers. But when that update involves India, a country home to one-sixth of humanity, the implications are monumental. The "June 2025 Update" is just such an event. At first glance, the numbers are startling, suggesting a dramatic and rapid decline in both poverty and, most strikingly, inequality in India. It’s a narrative that aligns with a story of broad-based progress. Yet, as I began to delve into the accompanying technical note, a far more complex and layered picture emerged. The story of India's improved metrics is not a simple tale of policy triumph; it is an intricate interplay of genuine progress, profound methodological shifts, and critical data omissions. This update is less a photograph of India and more a recalibration...