Sunday, December 10, 2017

Know your consumer

                                                     
RBI has been conducting consumer confidence survey and publishes results on consumer perception  about the prevailing economic conditions in the country(Current Situation Index -CSI).
RBI expects the survey to provide evidence of consumer confidence and a predictor of consumer spending. They expect economic agents that influence aggregate supply – manufacturers; retailers; investors; builders; government agencies - rely on measures of consumer confidence to make an assessment of consumption expenditure which, in turn, forms their production decisions.
The indicators are expected to  also provide useful insights to wielders of monetary and fiscal policies who have to make decisions on modulating aggregate demand in the economy around the path of productive capacity in the economy in order to ensure macroeconomic stability.

The survey first started in 2010, is conducted quarterly and summarized into yearly report and released in the 3rd quarter every year.
Recently, RBI released its 16-17 report. 
The survey is done through opinions collected from 5400 respondents in 6 cities - Bengaluru;. Chennai; Hyderabad; Kolkata; Mumbai; and New Delhi.

The CSI is a summation of five parameters - general economic situation, employment scenario, price level, household income & household's spending.

While, the results has a lot of charts and statistics, what is perplexing is that RBI has stuck to the six cities till date.
Two of fastest growing states, in terms of GDP growth %, are not represented at all (Gujarat & Madhaya Pradesh). Also missing out is UP, Bihar, and so 35% of  population has remained unrepresented. Kerala, the most literate state is missing. And finally, NE is completely neglected. Kolkata cannot be by any stretch of imagination represent NE? 

The second key aspect of the report is its relevance. The report by its obvious nature should be central part of discussions, debate and should have seen fair representation in the media  and economic forums
Save for an article, there is no murmur about this survey. The yearly economic survey by the Government of India also does not seem to bother too much on the results of this survey.
Analyst and other institutions seems to be either unaware or not keen to look at this report. Not to mention, manufacturers, retailers or other economic agents have no reason to use this report.

Surely there is enough evidence for RBI to rethink its main assumptions of this survey and its relevance.

In my opinion, RBI should stop releasing reports that does not represent India in its current avatar. The "metro is a representation of India", is no longer an assumption that RBI should lean into. 

RBI, do you know your consumers?

Monday, October 9, 2017

RBI vs. ROB (Rest of the Banks)



RBI on 4th Oct 2017 released a report of the Internal Study Group, to Review the Working of the Marginal Cost of Funds Based Lending Rate System (MCLR). This rate is applicable to borrowers when they apply for loan. RBI through the banking system (I will call them - Rest of Banks (ROB)) manages the transmission of interest rate policy.

The Executive summary started off with a very damning note on monetary policy transmission by the banks (under “Key findings”). The extract below is an indication that the committee was categorical in ascribing malafide intention, and was short of using the word “cheating”, in the manner in which, the Banks avoided policy rates transmission, to its respective customers.

Extract from report -Key findings 
“Analysis conducted by the Study Group suggests that banks deviated in an ad hoc manner from the specified methodologies for calculating the base rate and the MCLR, to either inflate the base rate or prevent the base rate from falling in line with the cost of funds.

These ad hoc adjustments included, inter alia,
(i)            inappropriate calculation of the cost of funds;
(ii)           no change in the base rate even as the cost of deposits declined significantly;
(iii)          sharp increase in the return on net worth out of tune with past track record or future prospects to offset the impact of reduction in the cost of deposits on the lending rate; and
(iv)         Inclusion of new components in the base rate formula to adjust the rate to a desired level. The slow transmission to the base rate loan portfolio was further accentuated by the long (annual) reset periods”. (para 3 of executive summary) -       End of extract

The report cited that the major factor that impeded the transmission, was the large portion of deposits with fixed rates and 1 year and above maturity (53% of deposits held were in this category). While this was in the liability side, the other factor was Banks were competing with  savings instruments like mutual funds and small savings schemes and hence were reluctant to reduce the interest rates (would have led to loss of deposits, though tax adjusted returns are much lower)

The other factor quoted for non-transmission is large NPA problem that the banks are facing and the banks thought it prudent to cover themselves with unexpected loan losses in credit portfolios by retaining higher spreads.

The report indicated two key elements on the transmission of spread changes
1.    The report dwelt that there was a “lag in spreads changes” both in private and public banks. While the spread in private banks was around 6 months, the public banks did not change the spreads even after 6 months.
2.    The second aspect was that for the existing/outstanding loan, the transmission was lower than for new loans. This means, the existing borrowers continued to pay higher interest rates than what RBI’s monetary policy rates indicated (since mostly the report covered period when the interest rates were coming down).


Finally, the report cites, how banks tended to charge the spreads over Marginal Cost of Funds Based Lending Rate (MCLR) arbitrarily (evidence gathered from a special study of select banks).

These arbitrary actions were
1)    Large reduction in MCLR (that could have led to lower interest rates) was partly offset by simultaneous  increase in spreads in the form of  “business strategy premium”, ostensibly to reduce  the pass through to lending rates
2)    There were no documentation of the rationale for fixing business strategy premium for various sectors (sector-wise adjustment, without adequate documentation is a clear indication that the banks did not want the RBI or for that matter anybody else to see what and how this was calculated)
3)    Many of the banks cited, did not get these premiums approved its Board
4)    Some of the banks, just arrived at this premium as the “residual” by subtracting the existing rate from the arrived MCLR, thus in fact retaining the rates (hence no transmission)

From the above its clear and unambiguous that Banks in India have played a big role in thwarting transmitting policy rates to the customers through erroneous as well as with malafide intentions. Moreover, indication of opaqueness, lack of internal governance and rank opportunism is revealed.
This seems very similar to the LIBOR gate (rate manipulation) that saw few unscrupulous bankers decide LIBOR rates to suit their needs than through normal economic considerations.

Recommendations by study group-
1.    Banks to be advised to recalculate the base rate immediately by removing/adjusting arbitrary and discretionary components added to the formula. The intent is correct, but who and how this will be executed and who in RBI will take responsibility and how much time will the banks be given to make this changes is not clear. Without recommendation that specifies deadline, this seems improbable at this moment
2.    RBI had not specified sunset clause for Bank rate (the earlier avatar of MCLR) leading to very slow migration to MCLR by banks (contrast this with GST migration). The study group has recommended that Banks be asked to migrate the existing customers to MCLR without paying any conversion fee or switchover fee. Banks have been given time between April18 till March 2019.
3.     Banks are recommended to show in each branch and their sites, the MCLR rate for each tenor across various industries. They have also recommended that IBA or such other organization may be asked to show the rates across various banks for easy comparison.
4.    The study group recommended that both the Bank rate and MCLR have not been effective in transmitting the policy rates to the final customer/in the market, and has given alternative “external benchmark rates” that may be adopted after taking into account feedback and suggestion from the stakeholders. Out of possible 13 alternatives, the study group has identified 3 as benchmark rates. These are
a.    a risk-free curve involving T-Bill rates
b.    CD (Certificates of Deposit) rates
c.    Reserve Bank’s policy repo rate         

RBI is expected to take action on the above recommendation.

In the end, the issue is not which benchmark rate will RBI use to monitor and transmit its policy direction, but how will it ensure that Banks do follow on and pass it the customers in reasonable time, as it intended to and do not rob the customers. With the expected increase in accessing formal banking (JAM) by retail customers, integration of large no of formal SME into financial system and opening up of digital banking (payments bank, P2P lending, etc), RBI’s role is cut out in its most important function of setting the right interest rate and transmission into the financial system and for, RBI this is “too big to fail”.

Annexure:
 Key charts that support the issues surrounding transmission of policy rates
 






How to read the above tables.
1.    Repo rate – Policy rate reduction by RBI (reduction indicated in negative).
2.    Changes in Base rate (the earlier avatar of MCLR (prior to April’16) against the repo rate is lower and with wide margins.
3.    Compare this with the reduction in Deposit rates (liabilities side) and WALR –outstanding/fresh rupee loan.
4.    The transmission in outstanding loan is far lower than fresh loans
5.    Impact of demonetization seems to be positive in driving transmission of policy rates.
6.    The higher cut in the MCR post demonetizations is due to high liquidity (deposit of high value note) and weak credit demand
7.    Private banks transmission was better than public sector banks
8.    In the sector-wise lending rates, the personal vehicle, housing and agri loans were least adjusted while, export credit loans and large corporates loan, the transmission was higher. The bias towards large corporates is very visible, while retail loans have not benefitted (in the reducing interest regime)

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Beyond rules beyond regulation


Corporate governance is again in the news, for all the wrong (?) reasons, with the saga of Infosys transiting from the owner’s hands to “Board of Directors or professional management’s hands, struggling to reach cruise mode.
It is now a topic for discussion everywhere, from news-papers, TV channels, social media, conference halls, restaurants and airport lounges. Everyone has her/his opinion on the subject and yours truly also believes in the right to opine on this subject.
While the recent cases of Tata’s and Infosys are a matter of discussion and gossip, there are many more such cases happening around us that are not reported, discussed or even identified.
But these high profile cases do bring our attention to the “very present problem” that corporate world is facing and continues its struggle in addressing them, in a manner that is satisfactory.
Some research, analysis, case studies and few discussion in the TV channels is what I foresee seeing as an aftermath of any such incidence and life then goes on.
New rules, regulations and norms may be laid out, a tweak in some Act may follow and we will have to assume that we have learnt something and taken course correction.
But this is a blatant lie that we tell ourselves because, we intuitively know that such remedial measures are like applying bandages on the wound but not a medication for the real ailment.
Western nations have been in the fore front of identifying “corporate governance” as an important factor in corporate world (primarily in democratically run countries) and have created structures, disclosure norms, rules and standards to help corporate world adopt and adhere to certain minimum standard of corporate governance.
Despite that, there have been innumerable cases of firms not adhering to or violating rules/regulation both in letter and spirit. Firms have failed either due to an individual, collective action/inaction or duplicity and complicity of regulators.
Whether it is manipulating LIBOR rates, fudging books of accounts, selling junk bonds as triple A rated bonds, sharing board meeting outcomes in advance, showing non existing fixed deposits, siphoning of corporate (public) funds for personal ventures or setting policies that suits one’s own salaries and bonuses, every manner of mal practices have taken place, SOX or no SOX.
Corporate governance is just not about owners moving out of their firm and letting professionals take over to run and create value for the firm, but how firms run their businesses despite their owners, professionals, rules, regulations & norms.
In India, large no of businesses in the MSME sectors and retail/kirana shops have been running for centuries under a model, where family members automatically takeover the businesses and/or the more prominent positions in a family run firms are occupied by “persons from the same village” or from the same community.
Governance issues appear even in political space. The cases of Lalu, Karunanidhi, Thackery and not to mention Nehru family, pushing their family members into leadership position is rather glaring.
So the point is that corporate governance suffers (?) from the same issues that governance faces in other spaces. The eco system or the culture that we have developed for so long, influences governance standards and our acceptance of them as a society, adds credibility.
To me, the fundamental issue is the “moral structure” that we cultivate, administer and grow in the society. That is what determines governance at large and corporate governance in particular.
The current moral structure is run on what I call as “the doctrine of ownership, convenience and enjoyment”. This doctrine simply means, that owners consider their automatic right to run firms that they incubated, for generations to come, irrespective of talent or not (inequality in opportunity). It is convenient to have your bloodline or family, takeover to avoid/minimise issues of wealth distribution amongst family members (inequality in wealth distribution) and the owners’/family’s consider it as their right alone to enjoy the fruits of the firm, perennially, since they brought the firm into existence (seeding inequality in future)
This doctrine is currently acceptable as a standard in India and any change is countered by the eco system, actively and sometimes questioning the need for the change itself. The acts, rules, regulations and norms move in tandem with this moral structure, ably assisted by the legal and regulatory fraternity.
At its core, all three parts of the doctrine are human desires, that has always run the show, so to speak, and not been questioned by society as a whole. This doctrine may have been good for the years gone by but is not certainly the right one going forward.
Corporate governance, in its better form will remain a distant dream unless, there is a fundamental change in the above doctrine and adoption of a new doctrine across the eco system.
The counter to the existing doctrine is “the doctrine of detached ownership, quality in convenience and cooperative enjoyment”. The doctrine turns its head on the existing one and that reflects a maturity and civility in the society to come.
Detached ownership simple means, an opportunity for the original owners to realise that transfer of ownership to family member or close bloodlines may not be the best value creation avenue in the long run (equal opportunity to run businesses after owners have incubated).
Quality in convenience, means that as Individuals and society, we admit and accept that wealth is not created by individuals alone, it comes from every person involved in running the business, not just the owners and wealth is not generated in isolation but contributed by varied stakeholders (equality in opportunity to wealth).
Finally, cooperative enjoyment, admits and accepts that enjoyment by select few individuals in the long run only develops negativity and harms the enjoyment of the future generations, including the wealthier ones, while shared enjoyment leads to greater happiness for all the society members. All three parts may not be borne out of past experience but surely that is what human beings aspire for, at least in the future.
Fundamentally this change is a change in human desires and direction of the collective thoughts of society.
This change cannot happen overnight and first steps will always be laid out by individual(s) who have little baggage to carry from the past.

Individuals who foster and challenge the existing eco system and make a success of their business/venture, the corporate world will acknowledge be seen as the breakthrough that may trigger this change. This knowledge that such success is possible under the new doctrine, will draw others to follow and then the change suddenly blossoms across eco system. Society accepts the new doctrine as the new normal and change is finally entrenched into societal thinking. 
At this juncture, this looks utopian, distant, mere words and theory. May be, but humans are capable of turnaround for the good, when least expected. There are enough evidence that there is a simmering need felt in many quarters of the corporate world, for a paradigm shift in the way businesses are run, management is compensated, goals are achieved and society co-opted, in this venture.
For the record, in my opinion, the very decision of the original owners of Infosys to let go, the running of the firm, is the first step and a laudable one. Nothing can take away the courage that they displayed in giving up the reigns of running the firm, when the whole eco system in India is quite the opposite.
The current tug of war and war of words, in my humble opinion, is only a passing phase and something that Infosys can manage to navigate without too much value foregone. But I am neither a soothsayer nor clairvoyant, but I hope my predictions are not completely wrong.

What I am sure off is that, the case of Infosys turnaround to success, in the coming years, will be an important landmark for the India’s corporate world and it may reflect the first shoot of the new doctrine.